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Total Potential Cost Savings Worldwide

2 min read

  • Estimate of the Total Number of Deaths Worldwide Annually
    • According to the World Health Organization (WHO):
      • Total Global Deaths: Approximately 56 million deaths occur worldwide each year.
  • Identify Deaths from Serious, Life-Limiting Illnesses
    • a. Global Deaths from Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)
      • Non-Communicable Diseases account for 71% of all deaths globally.
        • Total NCD Deaths: 56 million × 71% ≈ 40 million deaths annually.
    • b. Main Categories of NCDs
      • Cardiovascular Diseases: ~17.9 million deaths
      • Cancers: ~9.3 million deaths
      • Chronic Respiratory Diseases: ~4.1 million deaths
      • Diabetes: ~1.5 million deaths
      • Others: Includes neurological disorders, kidney diseases, liver diseases, etc.
    • c. Total Deaths Relevant to EOL Discussions
      • Estimate: Approximately 40 million deaths annually are due to serious, life-limiting illnesses where EOL discussions are appropriate.
  • Estimate the Number of Patients Without EOL Discussions
    • a. Patients Eligible for EOL Discussions
      • Assumption: Not all deaths from NCDs involve patients who are aware of their prognosis or have the opportunity for EOL discussions.
      • Estimate: 80% of NCD deaths involve patients who could benefit from EOL discussions.
      • Calculation: 40 million × 80% = 32 million patients
    • b. Patients Currently Without EOL Discussions
      • Based on U.S. Data: In the U.S., 68.8% of patients did not have EOL discussions.
      • Assumption for Global Estimate: The percentage may be higher globally due to cultural, educational, and healthcare system differences. However, for a conservative estimate, we’ll use 68.8%.
      • Calculation: 32 million × 68.8% ≈ 22 million patients
  • Determine the Per-Patient Cost Savings
    • a. U.S. Per-Patient Cost Savings
      • From the Study: $1,041 per patient in the U.S.
    • b. Adjusting for Global Healthcare Spending Differences
      • U.S. Healthcare Spending per Capita:
        • Approximately $10,600 per year.
      • Global Average Healthcare Spending per Capita:
        • Approximately $1,100 per year (based on World Bank data).
      • The ratio of Global to U.S. Spending:
        • $1,100 / $10,600 ≈ 0.104 (about 10%).
      • Adjusted Global Per-Patient Cost Savings:
        • $13,916 × 10% ≈ $1,391 per patient
  • Calculate the Total Potential Cost Savings Worldwide
    • a. Total Savings Calculation
      • Total Potential Savings:
        • $1,391 per patient × 22 million patients ≈ $30.602 billion
    • b. Rounding
      • Approximately $31 billion in potential market globally

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