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Total Potential Cost Savings USA

2 min read

  • Defining “Serious Illness”
    • Serious illnesses are health conditions that:
      • Are life-threatening or life-limiting.
      • Negatively impact a person’s daily functioning or quality of life.
      • Often require complex and prolonged treatments.
      • Include advanced stages of diseases such as:
        • Cancer
        • Heart disease
        • Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
        • Stroke
        • Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias
        • Chronic kidney disease
        • Liver failure
        • Neurological diseases (e.g., Parkinson’s, ALS)
        • Advanced diabetes complications
  • Estimating the Number of Patients with Serious Illness in the USA
    • a. Total Annual Deaths in the USA
      • Approximately 3 million deaths occur annually in the United States (based on CDC data).
    • b. Deaths Attributable to Serious Illnesses
      • Using the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), we can estimate deaths from serious illnesses:
        • Heart Disease: ~690,000 deaths
        • Cancer: ~600,000 deaths
        • Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases (e.g., COPD): ~160,000 deaths
        • Stroke (Cerebrovascular Diseases): ~150,000 deaths
        • Alzheimer’s Disease: ~120,000 deaths
        • Diabetes: ~100,000 deaths
        • Kidney Diseases: ~50,000 deaths
        • Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis: ~45,000 deaths
        • Parkinson’s Disease: ~35,000 deaths
        • Septicemia: ~40,000 deaths
      • Total Deaths from Serious Illnesses:
        • Adding these figures:
        • Total1,990,000 deaths
    • c. Adjusting for Relevance to EOL Discussions
      • Excluding Sudden Deaths: Some deaths from heart disease and stroke are sudden; EOL discussions may not be feasible.
      • Estimating Proportion with EOL Care Needs:
        • Let’s conservatively estimate that 80% of deaths from these conditions involve patients who could have benefited from EOL discussions.
      • Adjusted Total:
        • 1,990,000 deaths × 80% = 1,592,000 patients
      • d. Patients Without EOL Discussions
        • Based on the original study, 68.8% of patients did not have EOL discussions.
      • Patients Without EOL Discussions:
        • 1,592,000 patients × 68.8% ≈ 1,094,816 patients
  • Calculating the Total Potential Cost Savings
    • a. Cost Difference Per Patient
      • $1,041 per patient (from the original study)
    • b. Total Potential Cost Savings
      • Total Savings:
        • $13,916 × 1,094,816 patients ≈ $15,235,459,456
    • c. Rounding
      • Approximately $15.24 billion in potential annual cost savings.

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